BMI Research

A stack of Ugandan shilling banknotes—50,000, 20,000, 10,000, and 5,000—arranged in a currency counting machine.

Bank of Uganda tightens liquidity as shilling falls to weakest since 2024

The Bank of Uganda says it can stabilise the shilling, and has raised banks' cash reserve requirement to 13.5 per cent for the second time this year

The offices of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development in Kampala

Uganda’s oil moment approaches — but the risks are multiplying

Uganda's first oil is due in H2 2026, but timing risks, fiscal pressures, and a Middle East conflict cloud the outlook

Rise in gasoline prices concept with double exposure of digital screen with financial chart graphs and oil pumps on a field. Stock photo.

Uganda faces higher fuel costs as US-Iran war roils oil markets

Uganda faces dearer fuel imports and currency pressure as the US-Iran war pushes oil prices higher, but first oil in H2 2026 offers a longer-term upside

Various currency notes of African countries are seen in this photo

Stronger currencies ease inflation pressures across sub-Saharan Africa

Strong currencies have helped curb inflation in several sub-Saharan African countries, giving central banks room to ease interest rates and stimulate business activity

BMI predicts that loan growth in 2024 will be driven by personal and household loans, borrowing from the agriculture sector, and the construction sector.

Strong economy to boost bank lending, deposits in 2024, says BMI

Improved economic conditions and lower lending rates are expected to increase demand for bank credit, in contrast to last year when loan growth slowed

Street scene outside a luggage shop in downtown Kampala

Fitch cuts GDP forecast on lower government spending, fall in net exports

Economy to grow slower in 2023 than previously expected, as government spending slows and net exports fall, according to global research firm BMI